Reserve Bank Stress Tests Simulate Stagflation

As part of their latest Reserve Bank solvency stress test, New Zealand banks were asked to take into account a cyberattack for the first time. Despite a severe stagflation-like scenario, the Reserve Bank says most firms would have to raise capital, restrict dividends and cut expenses to be able to keep functioning, even though they will have to raise fresh capital, limit dividends, and cut expenses to do so. 

During the stagflation scenario considered in the model, high inflation, increasing interest rates, and a severe recession resulting in a surging unemployment rate are some of the features modeled. Since 2014, it has been the first time a reserve bank has conducted a stress test in which high-interest rates were present. 

Banks included in the annual stress test were ANZ NZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac NZ, Kiwibank, Heartland Bank, TSB, ICBC, and Bank of China. They received instructions from the Reserve Bank in April. 

6% was the Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the NZ economy. According to Statistics NZ, this was below the 7.2% reported in the current year, as well as the 6.9% reported by Statistics NZ in May for March. 

As part of the arrangement, the Reserve Bank also had to increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from jus

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